Mick West Gives His Take on 'Mosul' UFO Video

If you’ve spent any time in UFO communities or watched the recent buzz about the so-called "Mosul orb," you’ll know how a mysterious video can spark fierce debate, wild theories, and legitimate curiosity. But what if the answer to one of the internet’s newest "UFO mysteries" is actually simpler—and more down-to-earth—than many imagine? Let’s dive into what really happened over Mosul, Iraq, and why the likeliest explanation is less "X-Files" and more "weather forecast."

A Mysterious Video and a Scientific Approach

The story begins with a brief, blurry video showing a silvery sphere zipping across the sky near Mosul, Iraq, just north of Baghdad. The footage, filmed from a military aircraft with on-screen data mostly redacted, quickly made the rounds online. Many were quick to label the orb as a UFO, but skeptics and analysts stepped in for a closer look—with some surprisingly accessible tools.

By examining both the initial still photo (which retained some location data) and the video, analysts triangulated the event’s exact geography. The coordinates, distance to the object (26,000 feet), date, and time were decodable, and even the altitude of the plane could be deduced. Next, by feeding all this data into 3D modeling software, some interesting facts came to light. Specifically, if you place a sphere at the determined coordinates under that lighting, it matches the highlight—the way light reflects off the orb—almost perfectly. This isn’t just proof that the video is genuine. It also supports the idea that the object really was spherical and really was floating at that time and place.

The Science of Parallax—and the Case for a Balloon

Here’s where it gets fascinating. When the analysts simulated the movement with accurate sight lines and field of view from the plane, they realized something: If you stick a stationary sphere in that position, the parallax from a moving aircraft makes the orb appear to dart wildly across the screen. In other words, a featureless sphere simply drifting along could look much faster and stranger simply because of how the plane and camera move relative to it.

To go further, they calculated possible speeds and directions using the video’s data. A solution appeared that matched reality: a sphere drifting southeast at about 10 miles per hour. When historic weather data was checked, it showed wind at 10 miles per hour in—wait for it—exactly the same direction. The best hypothesis? The mysterious orb was likely a large weather balloon or radar target, simply gliding along with the wind.

Balloons: The Bane of UFO Enthusiasts

If you’re thinking, “Well, that’s kind of boring. Isn’t it possible it was something else?” you’re not alone. Every time a UAP (unidentified anomalous phenomena) video is released, the internet fills with speculation: alien ships, advanced drones, secret military tech. But the much less glamorous truth is, the vast majority of such cases are easily explained.

In fact, the United States government’s own UAP task force (now the "AARO") has resolved scores of other "unknown object" cases as balloons. It turns out, balloons—in all their forms, from party decorations to giant scientific instruments—are common in our skies. They drift, float, and reflect sunlight, often looking weird and mysterious, especially through grainy military cameras.

The analysis also points out an important aspect of perception: most pilots and military analysts were not, until recently, specifically trained to recognize how balloons and other mundane objects appear on advanced cameras. As software tools and experience grow, many cases are identified more quickly. Interestingly, up to 80% of resolved UAP cases turn out to be balloons, 10% birds, and others are regular objects or natural phenomena. That doesn’t mean there aren’t truly weird or as-yet-unexplained cases out there; it just means that the bar for "alien spaceship" is incredibly high.

Why the Balloon Beat Occam’s Razor

One of the scientific concepts often invoked in these discussions is "Occam’s razor": the idea that the simplest explanation which fits all the facts is usually the correct one. In the case of the Mosul orb, the fact that it matches the size, speed, direction, and appearance of a weather balloon—at a time and place where wind supports the hypothesis—makes the balloon theory overwhelmingly likely.

Could it have been something else? In theory, yes. It could even have been, for example, a ten-foot metallic sphere moving at 100 miles an hour—something fantastical or technologically unprecedented. But then you have to ask: wouldn’t a massive metal object flying low over a city have been seen by many others? Wouldn’t we have radar evidence or eyewitness reports? And why is the simplest explanation—supported by all available data—not good enough for some?

Debunking Puddle Theories and Unlikely Hypotheses

Interestingly, the Mosul orb’s appearance led to online theories ranging from reflections in distant puddles to debris stuck on the camera lens. Analysts debunked these by showing that the sun’s position and shadows could not have created such a reflection, and an object on the lens would be out of focus. As with many UFO debates, plausible-sounding but physically impossible explanations proliferate—until they’re calmly and systematically ruled out.

The Importance of Open Tools and Community Analysis

What makes cases like the Mosul orb even more intriguing is that the tools and data are available for the public to use. One researcher even put their 3D modeling software online, so anyone can test different object sizes, speeds, and flight paths themselves. Unlike shadowy "expert panels" or secret military studies, this transparent approach allows enthusiasts and skeptics alike to see just how many possibilities exist—and weigh the odds for themselves.

The core lesson? Balloons fit all the facts and don’t require new, unproven or wildly speculative hypotheses. The alien spaceship theory is “possible” in the strictest sense, but when you’re dealing with trillions of balloons and zero confirmed alien spacecraft, the math becomes pretty lopsided.

Aliens: Out There, But Probably Not in Mosul

Does this mean UFOs are never real, or that aliens don’t exist? Not at all! Both analysts in the conversation end by expressing real hope and belief that life almost certainly exists somewhere else in our universe. Given its staggering size and age, it's only a matter of time and luck before we receive more definitive proof. But for now, the search continues—and most orb-like UFOs likely remain just ordinary balloons caught at extraordinary moments.

Takeaway: It’s OK to Dream—But Start With the Facts

The next time you see a grainy UFO video or see people on social media getting hyped about another "unexplained phenomenon," remember the Mosul orb. It's a perfect reminder that science, common sense, and a little detective work can go a long way. Staying curious is great, but as Carl Sagan said, "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence." Until then, keep your feet on the ground—even as you scan the skies.